Weak Chinese Data slams the Australian Dollar

The AUD/USD Forex market took a modest loss this morning after a flood of weaker than expected economic data came out of China this morning. Actually, some of the data was mixed.

April’s official retail sales came in a little better than the markets had expected. Retail sales were seen rising 10.7 percent. Forecasts called for a 10.2 percent gain. However, fixed-asset investment came in at 8.9 percent. That was below the 9.1 percent gain investors had expected.

Now for the big miss today with the Chinese data. This was with industrial production. Industrial production rose by 6.5 percent, year on year, in April. This was well below both the 7 percent gain that was expected and the March gain of 7.6 percent.

While retail sales came in as expected with strong consumer sentiment surveys, the industrial production miss heightens worries that the Chinese economy is slowing. Especially as the year continues.

aud/usd chart, chinese
aud/usd chart

Chinese data weighs on the Australian Dollar

Right now, the current economic growth levels were comfortably above the official target of 6.5 percent for this year according to the first quarter GDP reading. However, Beijing makers have shifted policy focus to controlling financial risks. They are also seen as trying to cool the property market’s expanding bubble. Investors are not against these policies, but are increasingly worried about the ongoing deleveraging process and what that will mean for demand and production in China.

There are already some signs that economic data is slowing and that the pace of economic growth in the world’s second largest economy is slowing.

Australian dollar traders showed some overall cautious thinking on China this morning. The AUD/USD Forex market, as seen on the above MT 4 chart, lost a few pips.to trade near 0.7386 after the numbers. However, the Aussie recovered most of those losses within 30 minutes or so.

David Frank

David Frank

Chief Market Strategist at CupO'Forex
David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.
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