Crude Oil gets caught up in Macro Events

The price of US WTI oil has gotten caught up with some macro level capital outflows, as seen on the below MT 4 chart, as the mighty sawbuck found some life. Also not helping matters was some economic data. The EIA Drilling Productivity report said that US shale output will hit 5.2 million barrels per day in May, the highest since November 2015. The last EIA report upgraded its April print to 5.1 million barrels per day from 4.96 million barrels per day projected previously.

On tap in the economic docket, this week are API inventory. There is also Fed speak coming up but comments from Kansas City Fed President Esther George should not be particularly surprising as they tend to be hawkish. This week’s economic calendar should keep price action under control as market wide liquidity levels rebuild as Europe returns from the Easter holiday break.

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oil chart

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Let us look at today’s oil technical analysis. The black gold is still consolidating below $54 per barrel. A daily close below the first technical support level that lines up at 52.05, challenges the next downside barrier that lines up at $50.15 per barrel.

The alternative technical analysis notes the first upside barrier lining up at 53.58. The next upside barrier is at the end of a cluster zone. This area runs from the January 3 high at 55.10 to 55.20.

David Frank

David Frank

Chief Market Strategist at CupO'Forex
David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.
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