US Supply Trends could force Crude Oil Lower

The price of US WTI light sweet crude oil continued to fall even after JODI data sowed exports from Saudi Arabia fell to their lowest levels since February. While that should have boosted investor confidence in the OPEC production cut scheme. However, investors seemed more concerned with signs that growing swing supply may offset coordinated output reduction.

On the data front, recent API numbers showed that inventories in the US lost a mere 840k barrels last week. Way less than the 1.03 million barrel drawdown expected to be reported in official EIA data, which is due today. Oil prices could continue lower should the EIA matches the API data release. There are also comments due from industry executives at the GCC Petroleum Media Forum in Abu Dhabi. These comments could also be market moving.

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Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Let us look into today’s daily technical analysis for the black gold. The price of crude oil continues to edge lower but has not yet broken below the key support level at $52.05 per barrel. A daily close below this first downside barrier challenges the next downside support layer at 50.15.

The alternative daily technical analysis notes the first upside barrier lining up at 53.58. The next daily technical resistance level is at the end of a congestion zone. This area runs from the January 3 high at 55.10 to 55.20.

David Frank

David Frank

Chief Market Strategist at CupO'Forex
David has his MA and PhD in Economics. He is a technical analyst who has been trading in the Forex world for over a decade. As an analyst and trader, David believes in the big picture by blending together technical analysis with the fundamentals behind the scenes in the Forex and Bond markets. David’s trading strategy is unique. He blends an understanding of fundamental and macroeconomics with technical analysis to offer a unique view into Forex. He applies several strategies including carry long positions, to take advantage of high yields in non-volatile markets, as well as using quicker, chart related analysis for day trading.
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